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Topic Name: Ice-free Arctic Could Be Here in 23 Years
Category: Environmental Fluid Mechanics
Research persons: Mark Serreze, Dr Serreze
Location: 216 UCB, Boulder, CO 80309-0216, United States
Details
The Arctic ice cap has collapsed at an unprecedented rate this summer and
levels of sea ice in the region now stand at a record low, scientists said last
night. Experts said they were "stunned" by the loss of ice, with an area almost
twice as big as Britain disappearing in the last week alone. So much ice has
melted this summer that the north-west passage across the top of Canada is fully
navigable, and observers say the north-east passage along Russia's Arctic coast
could open later this month. If the increased rate of melting continues, the
summertime Arctic could be totally free of ice by 2030.
Mark Serreze, an Arctic specialist at the US
National Snow and Ice Data Center at Colorado University in Denver which
released the figures, said: "It's amazing. It's simply fallen off a cliff and
we're still losing ice." The Arctic has now lost about a third of its ice since
satellite measurements began 30 years ago, and the rate of loss has accelerated
sharply since 2002.
Dr Serreze said: "If you asked me a couple of years ago when the Arctic could
lose all of its ice, then I would have said 2100, or 2070 maybe. But now I think
that 2030 is a reasonable estimate. It seems that the Arctic is going to be a
very different place within our lifetimes, and certainly within our children's
lifetimes."
The new figures show that sea ice extent is currently down to 4.4m square
kilometers (1.7m square miles) and still falling. The previous record low was
5.3m square kilometers in September 2005. From 1979 to 2000 the average
sea ice extent was 7.7m
square kilometers. The minimum extent of sea ice usually occurs late in
September each year, as the freezing Arctic winter begins to bite.
The sea ice usually then begins to freeze again over the winter. But Dr Serreze
said that would be difficult this year. "This summer we've got all this open
water and added heat going into the ocean. That is going to make it much harder
for the ice to grow back. What we've seen this year sets us up for an even worse
year next year." The winter ice has already failed to make up for increased
losses in the summer in each of the last two years.
Changes in wind and ocean circulation patterns can help reduce sea ice extent,
but Dr Serreze said the main culprit was man-made global warming. "The rules are
starting to change and what's changing the rules is the input of greenhouse
gases. This year puts the
exclamation mark on a series of record lows that tell us something is
happening."
The dramatic loss is further bad news for the region's wildlife which relies on
the sea ice, such as
polar bears.
The animals use its coastal fringes to find food, and as the summer ice retreats
to the north, they must swim further to hunt for seals. Some colonies of bears
have already showed signs of malnutrition and biologists say there could be a
severe drop in their population within a few decades, though they may not go
extinct.
Yesterday's announcement will also increase political interest in the Arctic,
with a number of countries currently jostling to exploit the oil and gas
reserves believed to lie under the ocean, which could become more accessible as
the icy cover retreats. Last month Russia claimed a huge area around the north
pole, and Denmark and Canada are preparing similar claims, which rely on showing
that a chain of underwater mountains that runs across the region are connected
to their respective continental shelves.
About Researcher:
Mark Serreze
Ph.D., Geography, 1989
Research Professor, Geography
Senior Research Scientist
National Snow and Ice Data Center
[ About NSIDC ]
E-mail:
serreze@kryos.colorado.edu
Office: RL-2, #223
Phone: 303-492-2963
Web:
http://nsidc.org/research/bios/serreze.html
About NSIDC:
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Phone: 303-492-1143
Fax: 303-492-1149
General Information : info@cires.colorado.edu
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Related Online Resource:
http://www.nrdc.org/globalWarming/qthinice.asp
http://www.athropolis.com/map.htm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polar_ice_cap
http://www.natice.noaa.gov/icefree/index.htm
http://www.livescience.com/environment/050823_ice_free.html
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