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Investigating typhoons
:: 16 October, 2009
The destructive force of tropical cyclones in East and Southeast Asia is back in the headlines. ETH-Zurich researcher Michael Faber, Professor of Risk and Safety at the Institute of Structural Engineering, and his team are developing models that can be used to assess the typhoon and earthquake hazards together with their associated risks more effectively.
Could your models have predicted the damage caused by the typhoon that hit East and Southeast Asia last week?
We could have predicted it statistically using a model we developed for Japan on behalf of Aon (the world’s largest broker for direct and re-insurance, editor’s note).
How does it work exactly?:
Based on physical models from different areas of science, we can simulate and, as soon as we obtain fresh information, adjust the complete life-cycle of a tropical cyclone in real time – from the formation of a typhoon and its course to the changes in pressure, speed and strength until it eventually hits land. What’s more, we adjusted the models on the basis of all the observations we had at our disposal, i.e. we entered all the observations we had from the past – hundreds of results. Using these parameters, we can then generate an approaching typhoon to monitor what happens and how high the amount of damage and financial losses is likely to be.
The first phase of the project is over. What happens now?:
On the one hand, we still want to refine the models, which means incorporating more parameters – detailed topographical features or the influence of climate change on the amount of rainfall, wind speeds and air pressure, for instance. On the other hand, we are working on a new project concerning real time decision-making in case of evolving natural hazards. In such events, how long should decision-makers from politics and economics wait before e.g. evacuating a city like Zurich or a refinery on the Gulf of Mexico?
How do you support those responsible in this decision?:
By developing models that help them to make the right decision at the right time. After all, risk-reducing measures and evacuations also bear risks in themselves, so you have to think long and hard before making such a decision. On top of this, an evacuation is extremely expensive. You can shut down large refineries within a day, for instance, but it takes a month to get them up and running again. The production losses are extremely high.
What mathematical methods are used?:
We are working with established decision-theoretical models that we’re trying to adapt so they can be used efficiently for a specific type of event, whether it be a typhoon, earthquake or a volcanic eruption. However, so many questions and possibilities have to be considered that even supercomputers are pushed to their limits. A typhoon can change its direction and speed at any moment; a small earthquake can be a forewarning for a serious volcanic eruption, but also cause a landslide or merely a harmless cloud of smoke. All of these eventualities and uncertainties have to be taken into consideration in the models. In order to consider such uncertainties in the decision problem, we use so-called Bayesian probabilistic models.
When are you expecting the first results?
The research project is likely to take another three years. We already have some initial results for typhoons, but we’re trying to develop even better mathematical formulations for the decision problem on this basis that necessitate fewer computations.
Decision-makers must be extremely interested in your models.
Basically, yes – but putting the application into practice also necessitates a significant amount of dissemination and information. We are trying first and foremost to create models and tools that make it possible to set priorities, for example providing decision support on how to decide which areas and countries should receive pre-emptive support. Many tools are available and we know what needs to be done. However, implementing them politically is a different story – and a huge task to say the least. In order to encourage this, we are using our networks such as the “World Economic Forum - Global Agenda Council on Catastrophic Risks”, the “International Forum on Engineering Decision Making” and the “Joint Committee on Structural Safety”.
Release link: http://www.ethlife.ethz.ch/archive_articles/091006_Taifun_ch/index_EN
Tags: tropical cyclones , climate change , ,
